Off course the defending world Series champion Dodgers got a jump on the 2025 season taking a two game series from the Cubs in Japan last week but the official start of Opening Day for MLB begins Thursday. The Dodgers and Cubs have 160 games remaining, for the other 30 teams a beginning of what they say is a long campaign and quest to play October baseball.
And attention on the National League East with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves. All three will compete for the division crown, how many reach the postseason? Those in baseball say this is the elite division in baseball as all three teams reached the postseason in 2024, the Mets with their marvelous run from mid-June. Majestic home run balls in the postseason from Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, losing the best-of-seven NLCS to the Dodgers.
As they say, pitching will win ball games. The Mets are at a disadvantage, the Braves and Phillies with an advantage. Juan Soto changes the complexion of the Mets with his 15-year $765 million contract and with a lineup that will score runs with the return of Pete Alonso.
The Phillies have power and speed. The Braves offense will produce runs and await the expected return of 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. who left their lineup last May with a left knee that required surgery. Certainly if everything plays out, barring that unexpected injury and mid season roster moves, the NL East will provide that exciting ride to October.
The Nationals and Marlins impact in the division? Two teams in that rebuilding stage, their only expectations to be spoilers and the Marlins could rival the White Sox as the worst team in baseball. Though the Nationals showed some progression last season with a young roster that matured in the second half.
NY Mets- Mets top half of their lineup is in that category of elite. Lindor at leadoff, second in 2024 NL MVP voting and one stolen base shy of a 30/30 season. Wll Lindor get off to his customary slow start and then pile it on? Soto, the career .421 OPS, generational player and considered the best hitter in baseball who gets on base. Who moved across town from the Yankees and familiarity with New York.
And Soto leads to Alonso, the Mets re-signed their home grown first baseman projected to hit 35 or 40 home runs, Then again, Alonso is coming off an off year and showed signs of not chasing pitches as much in the spring.
Mark Vientos is no longer a rookie, his breakout season last year with 27 home runs, second half and postseason that ignited the Mets offense and proficiency to handle third base. What hurts is injury to catcher Francisco Alvarez (broken left hand) and will start the season on the IL, though expected to a mid May return and provide home run power with 25 home runs.
There are some question marks. Brett Baty on Monday hit his fourth home run of the spring, the Mets prospect could command second base with Jeff McNeil (oblique injury) not anywhere close to baseball activity, and starting the season on the IL. Youngster Luisangel Acuna is on the roster and should start against left-handers.
Questions about a rotation without Sean Manaea (right oblique) and Frankie Montas (right lat) on the IL. Manaea‘s first start is expected in late April and Montes’ recovery with more time. Clay Holmes gets the Opening Day nod in Houston, a spring untouched and handling a once relief ace role with the Yankees to starter with the Mets.
Tyler MeGill (RHP) earned a spot after bouncing around the minors, Kodei Senga (RHP) with the sinker and after missing last season with shoulder triceps and calf issues. Griffin Canning (RHP) with a cutter and 5.19 ERA (2024). David Peterson (LHP) is a key here (2.90 ERA, 121 IP, 101 K’s) last season.
And the bullpen is revamped. Ryan Stanec was re-signed and proved to be valuable in the postseason, Paul Blackburn in the pen and can always be used as a starter. Edwin Diaz with hopeful command of the slider and fastball has proved to be an elite closer. Lefty A.J, Minter a major acquisition, a comeback from hip surgery provides the setup role for Diaz if ready. Minter, though, with a nasty slider and gets the ground ball outs.
Injuries be told, the Mets without Alvarez will be challenged. It’s not all about Soto. It comes down to Vientos also replicating his breakout year.
Prediction: 88 wins and contending for division title or one of 3 NL Wild Cards.
Braves- If the Braves manage to stay injury free and that is the question after a 2024 season and team OPS of .724, a major decline from the year before. An offense led without Acuna Jr. and DH Marcell Ozuna led with 39 home runs and 104 RBI.
Prediction: 91 wins, contending for division or one of 3 NL Wild Cards.
Phillies- No different with the Phillies and how pitching will lead them. Their sixth starter Andrew Painter is a top prospect in baseball. Zack Wheeler is always an ERA leader and strikeout artist, Aaron Nola with the commanding fastball, Christopher Sanchez is consistent, and Jesus Luzardo adds depth as Taijuan Walker will replace Ranger Suarez (IL) to start the season.
Reliable rotation and Walker has looked good this spring. Always look for a leadoff home run from Kyle Schwarber. Outfielders Nick Castellanos, Max Kepler, and Brandon Marsh make contact and get on base.
And then there is perennial MVP candidate Bryce Harper who is capable of hitting 40 home runs and driving in 100 RBI, assuming he stays healthy.
Prediction: 90 wins, contending for division or one of 3 NL Wild Cards.
Notice I did not predict a division winner. It’s going to be a race to the end and head-to-head meetings could be the ultimate and deciding factor. Why I also say wins in April are more important than September.
Rest of the NL could see the Padres Brewers, and the underrated Diamondbacks as contenders to make a run for October.
Rich Mancuso: X (@Ring 786) Facebook.com Rich Mancuso