Juan Soto and Pete Alonso are on the radar.
A busy offseason for baseball is off to a quick start. Soto and Alonso’s ability to change the complexion of a roster dictates they will command huge contracts via free agency.
So for the next month and perhaps beyond, get accustomed to the buzz and the rumors. The questions are how much goes to the highest bidder? Is Soto headed crosstown to the Mets? Is Alonso headed crosstown to the Bronx and wearing Yankees pinstripes?
If the Yankees fail in their bid to retain Soto, it leaves money on the table. Alonso would fit their needs to fill a first base gap with the intent not to re-sign Anthony Rizzo. All makes sense right? Think again because this is baseball economics.
Of course we can’t predict the outcome. With Soto and agent Scott Boras anything is possible, including his tendency to go with the highest bidder and putting all of this on hold until February. Boras also represents Alonso and a ton more of talented players on the market
It’s a good question, even better for the writers and broadcasters that thrive on the hot stove aspect of a baseball offseason. But the equation is more interesting with Soto and Alonso, two fabrics of New York baseball, the Yankees and Mets having the ability to spend with pockets of money to do so. The bidding war for Soto with the Yankees and Mets is more complex than their in-season Subway Series rivalry.
I’ve been asked, “Where does Soto land and how much?” Same with Alonso, a homegrown Met. Boras, though, will land him where the money is right with a guarantee of long term. I answer, it’s a chess game and more complicated than the analytics used during a 162-game schedule and postseason.
We do know that Soto will have bidders and will end up with a contract in excess of $600 million, perhaps more. Speculation is that he could exceed the $700 million of the Dodgers Shohei Ohtani’s deferral contract. We know Alonso coming off a free agent year of below average numbers will not command as much.
Regardless, Alonso has made it known he wants to remain with the Mets. Soto after a disappointing Yankees World Series loss to the Dodgers would not commit to continuing his role in the Bronx which caught everyone off guard, then again that was Boras talk.
The Yankees completed business with manager Aaron Boone, he returns for an 8th season after his 2025 option was picked up, so one mission of their busy offseason is done. The other is working around the Soto business who changed the complexion of the Yankees lineup but ended with a disastrous World Series Game 5 that is difficult to forget.
Etched in disappointment, the Yankees need Soto. And in their upper hierarchy of management, GM Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner know the significance of a Soto re-signing to their fan base and lineup.
There is a difference though, there could be a bidding war for possibly the best player in baseball. Mets owner Steve Cohen of the Mets is jetting to California next week, where he will wine and dine with Soto and Boras. The mission, bring Soto across town and lure him away from the Bronx as the highest bidder.
And with Cohen, the richest owner in baseball, this complexion always changes with the Mets, a first time battle with the Yankees for Soto. Don’t look at the battle line of last year when both teams made a bid for pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto after Cohen flew to Japan to meet with the highly touted pitcher, who landed with the Dodgers.
The entire scenario here is different, Soto will also get bids from the Dodgers and talk continues about a reunion with the Washington Nationals, where he was instrumental in their 2019 World Series championship. The Nationals are a team that can build around him and say they have resources to spend.
But the Nationals or any other team, with the exception of the Dodgers, won’t offer or have the resources to offer Soto a contract in excess of $600 million and 10-plus years. Then again, it’s about a luxury tax and not a salary cap among 30 teams in Major League Baseball, that has to be considered with free agency.
Soto, though, is special, the first highly touted position player entering free agency at 26-years of age, first since Bryce Harper and Manny Machado that went that route six years ago. He has an impact and is that prize for a team that lands him. Ask Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and the entire Yankees team after his 41 home run, 109 RBI, .288 batting average last season.
Soto to them was a difference maker. He gets on base and is a run producer and changes the complexion of an entire season. The Mets are going to spend, though Alonso is another question and also means a difference in their lineup.
Brings to a point of what I asked Soto and Alonso prior to the postseason. Of course, both responded with their love for playing baseball in New York in front of loyal fans at Yankee Stadium and Citi Field. Soto has the better chance of remaining in the Bronx, not ruling out Alonso staying in Queens.
Baseball personnel I have talked with the past few days are as perplexed as you and me as to their landing spots. But there is certainty the Yankees and Mets are going all out on this one. They say the Dodgers don’t need Soto but certainly will explore with some money coming off the books.
Alonso, the four-time All-Star and with 226 home runs in six years with the Mets, is second to Judge (232) since 2019. Imagine a lineup also with Judge and Alonso, or is Soto the better fit as it was?
Regardless it’s that equation of how important Soto and Alonso are for the Yankees and Mets. A waiting and guessing game. A win for New York either way if Soto and Alonso remain in New York, either in the Bronx or in Queens.
Rich Mancuso: X (Twitter) @Ring786 Facebook.com/Rich Mancuso
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